A Short-Term Bus Load Forecasting System

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for short-term bus load forecasting. This approach calculates the short-term bus load forecast using few aggregate models. The idea is to cluster the buses in groups with similar daily load profiles and for each cluster an aggregate forecasting model is built based on the analysis of individual bus load data. The solution obtained through aggregate approach is similar to the solution obtained by individual bus load forecasting model, but with lower computational effort. This proposed methodology was implemented in a user friendly computational forecasting support system. The use of the computational prediction was essential to provide ease and speed in finding the solutions.