The impact of tourism flows on the local economy: an empirical study based on time series analysis

Abstract

Accompanied by the impulsive interpretation of investment-driven growth in the process of industrialization, the trajectory of the rising contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has received more and more attention. Based on the VAR model, the article selects the relevant data of a region from 2005 to 2024 to make an empirical research on the relationship between tourism flow and local economy, and analyzes the current situation of tourism industry and economic development in the region, and finally proposes the relevant strategies according to the empirical results. The empirical results show that there is a mutual positive influence between tourism flow and local economy, and the positive effect of tourism flow on local economic growth is more significant, and its contribution can be up to 45% in the 10th period, while the local economy's contribution to tourism flow is stable at about 15%~20%, compared with the more limited role of economic development on tourism flow. The causal relationship provides a theoretical basis and foundation for the development of regional tourism policy.