A Study on the Nonlinear Impact of Tourism Flows on Local Business Economic Development Based on Time Series Modeling

Abstract

Studying the relationship between tourism flow and local business economic development is of great significance to the sustainable development of regional tourism industry. Therefore, this paper collects the tourism and business economic development data of a region from 2013 to 2023, and constructs a time series model using Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test and vector autoregressive model to explore the nonlinear impact of tourism flow on local business economic development. The results show that tourism flow in the study area plays a good role in promoting the development of local business economy, with a contribution degree of 0.702, which shows a more significant contribution relationship, and that tourism flow and local business economic development positively affect each other, and the fluctuating shocks of the development of local business economy gradually slow down the impact of tourism flow. The research in this paper provides certain ideas for the future development of regional tourism industry and the growth of business economy.