Beyond Climate Shocks: Institutional and Technological Determinants of Agricultural Resilience and Sustainability in Semi-Arid South India

Abstract

Agricultural systems in the semi-arid regions of South India are increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability, characterized by erratic monsoon patterns and rising temperature trends. Understanding the interaction between climatic stress and farm-level socioeconomic conditions is essential for assessing agricultural sustainability. This study examines the relationship between climate variability, institutional access, technological adoption, and agricultural sustainability in the Vellore district of Tamil Nadu. The analysis integrates 19 years of climatic data (2001–2019) with primary survey data collected from 200 farm households across 20 villages. A multidisciplinary analytical framework, combining Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Sen’s slope estimation, fractional logit modeling, binary logistic regression, and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based Sustainability Composite Index, is employed to examine both climatic trends and farm-level adaptive responses.
The results reveal substantial inter-annual rainfall variability with no statistically significant decline in Southwest Monsoon precipitation, while both maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit significant warming trends. Econometric analysis indicates that crop diversification decisions are primarily influenced by technology adoption and access to extension services rather than direct climatic variability. Similarly, technology adoption is strongly driven by institutional access and household income, suggesting that farmers adopt innovations as part of long-term productivity strategies rather than short-term responses to climatic shocks. The Sustainability Composite Index further identifies technology adoption, extension access, and farm income as the most significant determinants of resilience, while diversification contributes moderately to sustainability outcomes.
Overall, the findings indicate that resilience in semi-arid agricultural systems is shaped more strongly by institutional and technological factors than by climatic variability alone. These results underscore the importance of strengthening rural extension networks, promoting climate-smart technologies, improving irrigation access, and developing localized climate-risk management strategies. By integrating climatic trend analysis with farm-level socioeconomic data, this study provides district-level empirical evidence on the mechanisms through which institutional capacity mediates climate impacts on agriculture in semi-arid South India.