A Study on the Determinants of Artificial Intelligence Economy Development Based on Spatial Statistical Analysis

Abstract

As a key manifestation of the new round of technological and industrial revolution, the artificial intelligence economy has become a major force reshaping the global economic landscape. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering the period 2015–2024, this paper employs the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to measure the level of China’s Artificial intelligence (AI) economy development and uses the Dagum Gini coefficient to analyze regional disparities in this development. Additionally, drawing on knowledge of spatial statistical analysis, the study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of AI economy development across China’s regions and explores its development mechanisms and influencing factors. The results indicate that the overall level of AI economy development increased from 0.2722 in 2015 to 0.4276 in 2024, representing a growth rate of 57.09%; however, the overall trend remains modest. The level of AI economy development across different provinces exhibits strong stability, demonstrating a “club convergence” pattern, and a significant “Matthew effect” is observed in the development levels among provinces. Factor analysis indicates that the improvement in the foundational conditions for AI economy development has shifted from hardware deficiencies to institutional and structural constraints. Among these, the level of social digitization, the institutional and policy environment, the level of technology adoption, and the talent structure have become the primary bottlenecks. AI economy development is transitioning from a technology-driven phase to a stage of synergistic optimization between institutions and talent.