CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSING POLITICAL POLICY, AND GEOGRAPHICAL DRIVERS IN GLOBAL ENERGY AND METAL COMMODITY MARKET

Abstract

An increasingly complex set of political, policy and geographic forces defy conventional economic explanations of supply-demand equilibria in the global energy and metal commodity markets. We propose a unified Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Political, Policy and Geographical Drivers (CFAPPG) in global energy and metal commodities markets. The framework is structured around three analytical pillars, namely (i) geopolitical risk indices and interstate conflict dynamics, (ii) energy transition policy architectures such as carbon pricing, renewable mandates and trade policy, and (iii) geographical endowments such as reserve concentration, infrastructure chokepoints and climate vulnerability, based on Political Economy Theory, Resource Curse Theory, Geographic Determinism and Policy Regime Analysis. The study systematically reviews 147 peer-reviewed studies and institutional reports from 2010-2025 to identify the research gaps that remain. The paper finds that the drivers have been well studied individually, but simultaneous, non-linear interactions and feedback loops are under theorized. The framework is a mixed-methods conceptual synthesis, with illustrative quantitative indicators drawn from Q3 2025 data on crude oil, natural gas, copper, lithium and rare earth elements, and shows that commodity price volatility is best understood through the interaction of multiple drivers rather than through single variable models. Results demonstrate how convergence of geopolitical fragmentation, accelerated energy transition policies and geographical concentration in critical mineral reserves is leading the way to a new paradigm of structural price instability. The paper ends with policy recommendations for producers, consumers and multilateral institutions and a research agenda for empirically validating the CFAPPG framework.