Effect of Success Probability Perceived from Features of Project and Social Trends on Investment Decisions in Crowdfunding

Abstract

Many previous studies have investigated the effect of trust on funders’ investment decision and the factors which influence the success probability of a project in crowdfunding. However, few works have analyzed the effect of perceived success probability of a project on funders’ investment decision yet. Especially, few researchers have studied the success probability perceived from social trends, which has dynamic features, and the dynamics of its effect on funders’ investment decision. This paper analyzes the crowdfunding campaigns by stages focusing on the success probability perceived from social trends. The analysis shows that the success probability perceived from social trends affects funders’ investment decision and the effect is moderated by stages in campaign. The result gives some implications for developing crowdfunding theory and improving crowdfunding platform service.